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PV Market 2026: Structural Reconfiguration with Lasting Consequences

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The international photovoltaic market is entering an unprecedented phase of volatility. Raw materials under pressure, end of Chinese export support, and sustained demand: three dynamics fundamentally reshaping the sector’s balance. Analysis of key issues and operational implications for distributors, integrators, and installers across Europe.

Critical Raw Materials: Growing Cost Pressures

Polysilicon: Sharp Rebound After Two Years of Decline

Chinese N-grade polysilicon prices surged 9.83% in one week in early January 2026, reaching 59,200 CNY/tonne according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Many transactions now conclude above 60,000 CNY/tonne, marking a clear break from the downward trajectory observed since 2023.

This increase results from reduced production capacity utilization rates, with producers seeking to defend margins after years of below-cost pricing. Meanwhile, demand from wafer manufacturers remains strong despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Silver: Historic Surge Driven by Photovoltaics

Silver prices reached an all-time high of $83.62 per ounce in late December 2025, representing a nearly 150% increase over the year. The photovoltaic industry now consumes over 25% of global silver production, approximately 220 million ounces in 2025.

The market is experiencing its fifth consecutive annual deficit, with a supply-demand gap of 95 million ounces in 2025. For cell manufacturers, silver now represents 16-17% of total module costs and up to 30% of cell production costs.

Facing this pressure, manufacturers are accelerating reduction programs: heterojunction (HJT) cells reduced consumption to 75 mg per cell in 2025, a 34.8% decrease year-on-year.

Copper: Persistent Supply Tensions

Copper, essential for photovoltaic cabling, maintains elevated prices around $10,500-11,000 per tonne after reaching a record $11,771 per tonne in December 2025.

Global mine production is expected to grow by only 3.3% in 2026, insufficient to meet demand. The global refined copper market should face a deficit of 150,000 to 304,000 tonnes in 2026, extending supply tensions on DC and AC cables for solar installations.

China’s Strategic Pivot: Elimination of Export VAT Rebates

A Major Policy Decision

On January 9, 2026, China announced the complete elimination of the export VAT rebate (9%) for photovoltaic products effective April 1, 2026. This measure affects wafers, cells, modules, and inverters.

For batteries and energy storage systems offered, for example, by Ecostal Belgium and Ecostal France, the rebate will be reduced from 9% to 6% between April and December 2026, before complete elimination on January 1, 2027.

Quantified Price Impact

The impact on export costs is estimated at 5-8% in the short term. For a TOPCon module sold at $0.082/Wc FOB China, eliminating the rebate could raise prices to approximately $0.089-0.090/Wc, representing a 9-10% increase.

This policy marks a transition in China’s industrial model: from a volume-focused strategy toward an approach prioritizing quality and profitability. This shift aims to restore margins after years of price wars that led to cumulative losses of $1.54 billion in the first half of 2025 for major manufacturers.

Window of Opportunity in Q1 2026

The transitional period until April 1 is generating a massive export rush. Chinese manufacturers are seeking to maximize exports before the deadline, creating intense pressure on maritime logistics capacity while offering a window of opportunity for European buyers able to secure volumes under still-favorable tariff conditions.

Operational Challenges

For distributors like Yomatec and Solexis, and integrators like SigueSol, this combination of factors translates into:

  • Increased price volatility: gaps between orders placed a few weeks apart can reach 5-10%, versus 2-3% under normal conditions
  • Budget planning complexity: establishing firm quotes over several months becomes more challenging
  • Logistics tensions: extended transportation times and constrained container availability in Q1 2026
  • Evolving technical trade-offs: shifting economic equation between different cell technologies

Response Strategies

Several strategies help maintain competitiveness:

  • Dynamic inventory management: anticipating orders during opportunity windows
  • Source diversification: reducing dependence on a single supplier or geographic zone
  • System optimization: value engineering to reduce sensitivity to raw material prices
  • Adapted contracting: indexed revision clauses, framework contracts with volume securing

The Ecostal Group Approach: Supporting Transformation

At Ecostal Group, we view these developments as an opportunity to strengthen our value proposition to professional partners across Europe:

  • Continuous market monitoring of raw material prices, regulatory decisions, and supply chain tensions
  • Diversified offering through our specialized brands according to markets and needs
  • Technical support to optimize system architectures and maximize performance-to-cost ratios
  • Integrated solutions via SigueSol for complex projects (carports, C&I, agrivoltaics)
  • Local presence in Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Italy, and Spain

The 2026 photovoltaic market promises to be demanding, but the fundamentals of the energy transition remain intact. In this context of structural reconfiguration, we remain close to you, attentive, helping you move forward with confidence, project after project.

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 PV Market

Why are polysilicon prices increasing in 2026?

Polysilicon prices surged 9.83% in early January 2026, reaching 59,200 CNY/tonne. This increase results from production capacity reductions by manufacturers seeking to defend margins after years of below-cost pricing, combined with sustained demand from wafer manufacturers.

What is the impact of rising silver prices on photovoltaic modules?

Silver prices reached $83.62 per ounce in late 2025, up 150% for the year. Silver now represents 16-17% of total module costs and up to 30% of cell costs. The photovoltaic industry consumes over 25% of global silver production, creating structural cost pressure.

What does the elimination of Chinese VAT rebates mean for European buyers?

From April 1, 2026, China is eliminating the 9% VAT rebate on photovoltaic product exports. This should result in a 5-8% price increase, approximately 9-10% on modules. The first quarter of 2026 offers a window of opportunity to secure volumes before the deadline.

How can professionals manage this price volatility?

Effective strategies include: dynamic inventory management anticipating opportunity windows, supply source diversification, system architecture optimization to reduce sensitivity to raw material prices, and adapted contractual models with indexed revision clauses.

What are the forecasts for the copper market in 2026?

Copper should maintain elevated prices around $10,500-11,000 per tonne in 2026. The global market should face a deficit of 150,000 to 304,000 tonnes, with mine production growing only 3.3%. This tension directly impacts photovoltaic cabling costs.

Where does Ecostal Group operate in Europe?

Ecostal Group is present in 6 European countries through its various brands: Ecostal Belgium, Ecostal France, Yomatec (international), Solexis (Switzerland), and SigueSol for solutions integration (Italy, Spain, France).

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